跨境电子商务物流风险评价指标体系设计及其实证研究

马利军，冯植焱

（3044am永利集团官网，深圳，518060）

摘要：本文首先介绍了研究的背景和现状，然后，通过文献分析法以及专家咨询法识别出了跨境电子商务物流风险的来源，并用AHP和模糊综合评价法建立了评价指标体系，该体系一共有三个层次：第一层为目标层；第二层为准则层，包括四个一级指标，分别为包装仓储风险、运输配送风险、跨境通关风险、跨境环境风险；第三层为指标层，包括包装标准化风险等16个二级指标。最后，为验证所建评价指标体系的可行性，本文对深圳市跨境电商物流风险进行了实证研究，有效回收得到了35份的调查问卷。评价结果确定了深圳市跨境电商物流风险整体处于较高风险级别，其中处于较高风险级别的因素有：包装材料质量风险、货物破损风险、退换货拒收产生的逆向物流风险、商检水平风险、清关效率风险以及汇率波动风险。可见，该风险评价指标体系较为符合实际情况，较为可行。

关键词：跨境电商；物流风险；层次分析法；模糊综合评价

Design and Empirical Study of Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Risk Assessment Index System

Lijun Ma,Zhiyan Feng

Abstract:This paper first introduces the background and current situation of the research, and then, this paper identifies the source of cross-border e-commerce logistics risk through literature analysis and expert consultation method, and establishes an evaluation index system using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The system has three levels: the first layer is the target layer. The second level is the standard level, including four first-level indicators, namely packaging and warehousing risks, transportation and distribution risks, cross-border customs clearance risks and cross-border environmental risks; the third layer is the indicator layer, including 16 secondary indicators such as packaging standardization risk. Finally, in order to verify the feasibility of the evaluation index system built, this article conducts an empirical study on Shenzhen's cross-border e-commerce logistics risks, and effectively recovered 35 questionnaires. The evaluation results confirmed that Shenzhen's cross-border e-commerce logistics risks are at a higher risk level as a whole. Factors that are at a higher risk level include: packaging material quality risk, cargo damage risk, reverse logistics risk arising from return and exchange rejection, and commodity inspection level risk, customs clearance efficiency risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk. It can be seen that the risk assessment index system is more realistic and feasible.

Keywords: cross-border e-commerce; logistics risk; analytic hierarchy process; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation